Introduction to the USMCA Review
The upcoming 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) presents significant implications for U.S.-Mexico trade relations, shaped by the contrasting policies of what would be another Trump or under a Harris presidency. The review, mandated by the agreement’s six-year cycle, allows each member country to assess the trade deal and decide whether to extend, modify, or withdraw.
This review will be influenced by multiple factors, including the ongoing economic priorities of the U.S. and Mexico and the political dynamics of the 2024 elections in both countries. What would be the implications for Mexico during the 2026 TMEC review if Trump wins the election? What would they be if Harris wins? Here we present an analysis of what the implications would be for Mexico in these two scenarios.
Trump's "America First" Trade Policy
Trump’s trade policy centered around the "America First" concept, which prioritized reducing trade deficits, bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., and renegotiating trade agreements that he viewed as unfavorable. A key component of this policy was replacing NAFTA with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). For Trump, the USMCA is his “baby” therefore, we do not think he will withdraw from it. However, as we have seen in his previous administration, Trump often used tariffs as a negotiating tool. For instance, he threatened tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico took stronger action to curb illegal immigration. While these measures did not always materialize, the frequent threats created uncertainty in the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship.
Focus on Chinese Influence in Mexico
Trump and other stakeholders in the US have been particularly concerned with China using Mexico as a backdoor to access the U.S. market under USMCA terms. This could lead to stricter enforcement of trade provisions and monitoring of Chinese investments in Mexico. If Trump returns to office, it’s expected he will push for even more stringent measures to curb Chinese economic activities within Mexico.
Harris' Multilateral Approach to Trade
In contrast, the Biden administration (under which Harris serves as Vice President) has taken a more cooperative and multilateral approach to USMCA. Their strategy has focused on strengthening North American supply chains and encouraging regional investments to counterbalance global disruptions. Under a Harris presidency, this direction might continue, prioritizing environmental sustainability and labor rights while being less adversarial toward Mexico’s sovereignty in trade policies.
USMCA Importance to Mexico
For Mexico, the review will be critical. Mexico has benefitted significantly from USMCA, with trade and investment surging since the agreement took effect in 2020. However, challenges remain, particularly regarding compliance with labor standards and environmental commitments, areas where the U.S. has pushed for stricter enforcement. Additionally, tensions surrounding the auto sector’s rules of origin, GMO’s (corn), and Mexico’s energy policies could become flashpoints during the review, especially under a more protectionist U.S. administration.
The 2026 Outcomes
The 2026 review could lead to either an extension of the agreement for another 16 years or a protracted renegotiation. Both outcomes will depend on the political climate and how the major stakeholders address these tensions. The potential for yearly reviews, if consensus is not reached, would create uncertainty, potentially stifling long-term investments and complicating the region’s economic integration.
Conclusion: Shaping the Future of North American Trade
Overall, the review’s outcome will shape North American trade and investment flows for years to come, with Mexico’s role as a critical trading partner at the forefront of these discussions. The contrasting approaches of a Trump versus Harris-led administration highlight the diverse strategies and risks at play as North America navigates an evolving global economic landscape.
Key Takeaways:
- The USMCA review will be influenced by the 2024 Presidential election in the US, and the chosen political leadership will shape the 2026 review.
- China's influence will be a key focus of the 2026 USMCA review.
- There is potential for USMCA uncertainty to continue post-2026, which could stifle regional investment and further complicate trade relations.
About the author:
Monica Lugo has experience in both the private and public sectors. In the public sector she worked at the Ministry of Agriculture, the Presidency of the Republic, and the Ministry of Public Administration. In 2012 she joined the Ministry of Economy in the Undersecretariat of Foreign Trade, where she headed negotiations related to Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Competition Policy, Trade Remedies, State-Owned Enterprises, Technical Barriers to Trade and Sectoral Annexes of several trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), Pacific Alliance, Mexico, United States, Canada Agreement (USMCA), Mexico-European Union Free Trade Agreement (TLCUEM), among others. She later joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in April 2019 as Deputy Director General of Competitiveness and Innovation in the Undersecretariat for North America, advising on the process of the ratification of the USMCA and trade negotiations with the US, also collaborating on issues of trade promotion and innovation. In the private sector she has worked for consulting and sector analysis companies such as BMT Consulting and Euromonitor International coordinating projects. She is currently Director of Institutional Relations at Prodensa, where she helps to coordinate and manage Institutional Relations with Associations and Chambers, representing the interests of clients before government entities. She coordinates and conducts specific research on consulting issues, strategies with the government and key actors, among others. She is Sherpa of the Trade Facilitation Working Group at the US-MX CEO Dialogue and of the Narrative and Positioning Committee at Index. Ms. Lugo is a graduate of ITAM with a degree in International Relations.